In the first half of 2025, China’s once-booming shipbuilding industry has seen a marked slowdown in new orders. Despite remaining the world’s largest shipbuilding nation, the latest figures reveal a sharp drop that’s drawing industry-wide attention.
Let’s break down what’s happening, why it matters, and what might come next.
The Numbers: A Clear Downtrend
According to recent data from the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI) and Clarksons Research:
- New ship orders at Chinese shipyards fell by around 40–50% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025.
- Total new orders reached about 18 million deadweight tons (DWT), down from over 34 million DWT during the same period last year.
- While China still holds more than 50% of the global market share, the pace of new orders has clearly slowed.
What’s Causing the Slowdown?
- Excessive previous orders being absorbed
From 2021–2023, shipowners rushed to place large orders—particularly for container ships and LNG carriers—pushing yard schedules full into 2027–2028. Now, the market is digesting these backlogs.
- Uncertainty in the global trade environment
- US–China trade tensions, EU carbon border adjustments, and broader geopolitical risks have made shipowners hesitant.
- The Red Sea crisis and ongoing geopolitical tensions have also added unpredictability.
- Waiting for clearer green technology direction
- IMO’s stricter emission targets have left many shipowners waiting to see which fuel technology—methanol, ammonia, LNG—will dominate.
- Orders for next-generation green ships often take longer to finalize due to complex financing and design choices.
- High newbuild prices
Ship prices have climbed over 30% in recent years, encouraging some shipowners to delay investment or turn to second-hand tonnage instead.
Impact on China’s Shipbuilding Industry
Short-term:
Chinese shipyards remain busy fulfilling previous contracts, keeping capacity utilization high into at least 2027.
Medium-term:
Without enough new orders to refill the pipeline, yard utilization may decline in late 2027–2028, adding pressure to win higher-value, technologically advanced projects.
Long-term:
Shipyards will likely push harder into:
- Green and alternative-fuel vessels
- Smart ships and digital solutions
- Financing support and partnerships with emerging markets (e.g., Middle East, South America)
A Reflection of Shifting Global Trade
This slowdown isn’t unique to China; global shipbuilding orders have cooled after years of record growth driven by pandemic logistics disruptions and e-commerce surges. Yet for China, the stakes are higher given its central role in the world’s shipping supply chain.
In summary:
Chinese shipyards remain global leaders, but the slowdown in new orders signals the end of a supercycle and the start of a more competitive, high-tech, and green-focused future.