Following the U.S. government’s dramatic increase in tariffs—reaching as high as 145% on certain Chinese goods—China’s export engine appears to be faltering. Data from the Chinese Ministry of Transport shows that the week following April 10 saw a 9.7% drop in cargo throughput across major ports, a sharp contrast to previous weeks of steady post-holiday growth.
Shipping Volumes Slide
Ningbo’s container freight index shows that rates to the U.S. West Coast fell by over 18%, while East Coast rates dropped by 10.8%. This is more than just a fluctuation in shipping costs—it’s a red flag that fewer goods are moving. Warehouses in Guangdong and Shanghai report rising inventories, as shipments meant to depart before April 10 remain stuck amid logistical uncertainty and tariff panic.
U.S. Market “Frozen” for Many Exporters
At this year’s Canton Fair—China’s largest trade expo—many exporters voiced concern that U.S. buyers have vanished. Previously accounting for up to 70% of orders for some companies, American demand has plummeted. International buyer attendance at the fair has also fallen by more than 30%, with the U.S. and Europe seeing the steepest drop-offs.
Economic Forecasts Adjusted
Investment bank UBS has downgraded China’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 4% to 3.4%, citing the tariff shock and potential export contraction. Analysts expect up to two-thirds of U.S.-bound shipments to be canceled in the near term. Exporters are scrambling to reroute goods to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa—but these markets are not nearly as large or lucrative.
Commentary: Trade Tensions Cast Long Shadows
While the Biden administration maintains that the new tariffs are retaliatory and temporary, the damage to global supply chains and trade confidence is already visible. China, in turn, has hiked tariffs on U.S. goods up to 125%, signaling that de-escalation may not be on the immediate horizon.
Bottom line: We are witnessing more than just a tactical trade dispute. This is a strategic decoupling with real-world consequences—rising costs, delayed shipments, falling orders, and slower economic growth on both sides.
If policymakers cannot find a new framework for engagement—one that respects national interests without sabotaging global commerce—we risk sliding into a prolonged era of fragmented supply chains and lower growth potential.