As the U.S. approaches several critical tariff deadlines this summer — including the July 8–9 suspensions and the August 12 and August 31 China-focused expirations — global traders, manufacturers, and logistics firms are watching developments closely. Let’s look at what might happen next, based on recent news.
Recent developments
- U.S.–China trade talks: Recent meetings in London and Geneva signaled a willingness to keep dialogue open. China offered moderate concessions, but the U.S. (under Trump’s administration) has made clear that unless there are “substantial returns,” tariffs won’t be lowered.
- Partial progress: There was agreement to establish a longer-term negotiation framework, and the U.S. lowered small-parcel tariffs from 120% to 54%. But broader tariffs, especially those affecting bulk shipments, remain in place.
- Other moves: The U.S. announced additional guidance on steel derivatives tariffs (affecting appliances), signaling the administration is still ready to impose targeted duties when it sees fit.
Possible scenarios
Negotiation breakthrough before deadlines
If China offers bigger concessions (e.g., on trade imbalance, supply chains, or fentanyl measures), the U.S. might extend the suspension, possibly lowering rates to keep markets stable ahead of the election.
No deal – tariffs snap back
If talks stall, tariffs of 80–145% (or higher) could resume as early as July. That would increase costs for thousands of products and likely trigger supply chain rushes and price hikes.
Partial deal
Tariffs remain on some “strategic” categories (like electronics and vehicles) but get extended or reduced for consumer goods, helping retail prices stay manageable.